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POLITICO Pro Morning Central Banker: Fed tipping point — Greenflation — Cruising altitude

Published Thu, 20 Feb 2025 11:48:26 GMT

Our one-stop source for central banking & monetary policy news.View in your browser or listen to audioBy GEOFFREY SMITHSNEAK PEEK— The Fed is ready to pause, if May’s payrolls data will just let it.— Euro inflation falls, but the top brass isn’t convinced.— Defaults are in the air, and you probably won’t see the one that hits you.POLICY TICKERECB 3.75% ⇡ — BOE 4.5% ⇡ — FED 5.35% ⇡— SNB 1.5% ⇡— BOJ -0.10% ⇣— RBA 3.85% ⇡— PBOC 3.65%⇣— CBR 7.5% ⇣ — SARB 8.25% ⇡Good morning, and congratulations to making it to the end of a long short week. It’s been heavy on numbers, and the numbers have been heavy with implications. Across Europe, we’ve seen inflation coming down, and in the U.S., there are suddenly clear signs of the Federal Reserve taking a breather from rate hikes. Today’s payrolls and earnings numbers could have a decisive influence on what the Fed does with rates the week after next. Meanwhile in Europe, the half-yearly round of financial st...

Zelenskyy’s plea exposes Europe’s divisions

Published Thu, 20 Feb 2025 11:48:26 GMT

BULBOACA, Moldova — European leaders mounted a powerful show of defiance — and support for Ukraine — as they gathered Thursday for a historic summit in the ex-Soviet country of Moldova just kilometers from the Ukrainian border.But even as over 40 leaders pledged their solidarity with Ukraine at the second gathering of the so-called European Political Community, the difficulty in maintaining that unity was on display. Before and during the summit, leaders hedged and staked out competing positions on an increasingly contentious issue — what security guarantees the Western alliance can give Kyiv to ensure that if Russia is ever pushed out, it won’t return.French President Emmanuel Macron set the tone on Wednesday, imploring allies to offer Kyiv “tangible and credible” security guarantees — a shift in the French position. His German counterpart, Olaf Scholz, was more hesitant on Thursday, declining to provide any details and indicating it might be a question for after the war.Again...

Palestinian toddler critically wounded in West Bank, Israeli military says shooting unintentional

Published Thu, 20 Feb 2025 11:48:26 GMT

JERUSALEM (AP) — A 3-year-old Palestinian boy was in critical condition at an Israeli hospital Friday morning after being shot by Israeli fire in the occupied West Bank. The army opened an investigation into what it said was an unintentional shooting.In a statement, the military said that gunmen opened fire late Thursday toward the West Bank settlement of Neve Tzuf. It said soldiers at a guard post returned fire.Moments later, Israeli medics received reports that a Palestinian man and the child had been badly wounded. The man was rushed to a Palestinian hospital, while the baby, after being resuscitated by Israeli medics, was airlifted to Israel’s Sheba Hospital. The hospital said the boy was in critical condition.The military released a grainy video showing what it said were the gunmen firing toward the settlement and said that it was searching for them. But it said the incident was being reviewed, saying “it regrets harm to noncombatants” and that it does “everything in its ...

3 dead, 2 missing after family fishing trip in Alaska becomes a nightmare

Published Thu, 20 Feb 2025 11:48:26 GMT

JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — An Alaska fishing adventure became a nightmare for a family of eight when disaster struck one of the two boats they chartered over the Memorial Day weekend, leaving three people dead and two more missing despite a desperate search over hundreds of square miles of ocean.The tragedy tore the Tyau family apart: Two sisters and one of their husbands are dead, while the other’s partner and the boat captain remain missing off southeast Alaska four days after the boat was found partially submerged off an island. Authorities suspended a more than 20-hour search covering 825 square miles (2,100 square kilometers) on Monday and have no plans to resume it.The women’s parents, older brother and sister-in-law were on the other charter boat as part of a three-day trip to a destination fishery known for king salmon and groundfish.The sisters and their sister-in-law didn’t like fishing but joined the vacation to spend more time with a family that was usually split betwee...

Stock market today: Asia follows Wall Street up on hopes Fed will ease off rate hikes

Published Thu, 20 Feb 2025 11:48:26 GMT

BEIJING (AP) — Asian stock markets followed Wall Street higher Friday ahead of a U.S. jobs update after Federal Reserve officials reignited hopes another interest rate hike might be postponed.Shanghai, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Seoul advanced after U.S. lawmakers approved a deal to avert a government debt default. Oil prices strengthened.Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index rallied 1% on Thursday after data showed manufacturing and retail activity weakening. That added to hopes the Fed might decide upward pressure on prices is easing and more rate hikes can be postponed or scaled down.“Skipping a rate hike” at this month’s Fed meeting would let policymakers “see more data before making decisions,” said a board member, Philip Jefferson. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, made similar comments.The statements “reignited the prospect of skipping a hike” after strong jobs data last week fed fears of more increases, said James Knig...

Some trans people turn to crowdfunding to leave Florida after anti-LGBTQ+ laws

Published Thu, 20 Feb 2025 11:48:26 GMT

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — Dozens of transgender people in Florida have turned to crowdfunding appeals to help them leave the state after the passage of new legislation that targets the LGBTQ+ community, including a law that curtails access to gender-affirming care for adults and bans it for minors.For Sage Chelf, the decision to leave hardly felt like a choice, but she didn’t have the funds to cover a move. The 30-year-old trans woman, who lives in the Orlando area, was nearly out of one medication when she found out the clinic that had been prescribing her hormone therapy was ending all treatment for trans patients. “I don’t want to go back to the person that I was forced to be at the time,” Chelf said, of the years before she transitioned in 2021. “It was a very dark time in my life. I would rather just not be alive, I guess, then have to go back to living not trans.”Chelf was among dozens who made an appeal for donations online, saying they needed help to leave Florida in antici...

Fort Bragg to drop Confederate namesake for Fort Liberty, part of US Army base rebranding

Published Thu, 20 Feb 2025 11:48:26 GMT

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — Fort Bragg will shed its Confederate namesake to become Fort Liberty in a Friday ceremony that some veterans view as a small but important step in making the U.S. Army more welcoming to current and prospective Black service members.The change is part of a broad Department of Defense initiative, motivated by the 2020 George Floyd protests, to rename military installations bearing the name of confederate soldiers. The Black Lives Matter demonstrations that erupted nationwide after Floyd’s killing by a white police officer, coupled with ongoing efforts to remove Confederate monuments, turned the spotlight on the Army installations. A naming commission created by Congress visited the bases and met with members of the surrounding communities for input.While other bases will be renamed for Black soldiers, U.S. presidents and trailblazing women, the North Carolina military installation is the only one not carrying the name of a person. Retired U.S. Army Brig. Gen...

In gun law push, Tennessee governor’s office memo says NRA prefers to ’round up mentally ill people’

Published Thu, 20 Feb 2025 11:48:26 GMT

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee’s administration accused the National Rifle Association of wanting to use involuntary commitment laws “to round up mentally ill people and deprive them of other liberties,” according to documents drafted by the Republican’s staffers as part of their initial attempt to pass a gun control proposal earlier this year. The memos, provided by Lee’s office as part of a public records request, reveal a rare criticism of the powerful gun lobby made by the Republican governor. Lee has previously praised the NRA’s efforts to protect the Second Amendment but has since faced opposition from the group as he works to pass gun control legislation in response to a deadly Nashville school shooting that took place in late March.So far, Lee has proposed keeping firearms away from people who could harm themselves or others. He’s currently facing pushback from both the GOP-dominant General Assembly and firearms rights advocacy ...

As legal gambling surges, should schools teach teens about risk?

Published Thu, 20 Feb 2025 11:48:26 GMT

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (AP) — As a high school senior, Nick was blessed with a deadly accurate jump shot from the three-point range — something he was quick to monetize.He and his gym classmates not far from the Jersey Shore would compete to see who could make the most baskets, at $5 or $10 a pop.“It gave a different dynamic to the day, a certain level of excitement,” Nick said. “Little did I know how far it would continue to go.”Nick asked not to be identified by his full name because he has pending criminal charges over stealing money from his job to feed his gambling addiction, a compulsion that has cost him over $700,000 in the past decade. The 27-year-old plans to look for work after his charges are resolved, and he fears the job hunt will be even harder if he’s identified publicly as a compulsive gambler.Ten years ago during Nick’s last year of high school, there was no such thing as courses on the risks of gambling, the consequences of wagering, or the impact on pers...

Nikola Jokic’s beautiful game at heart of Nuggets’ Game 1 win: “That’s how I learned to play basketball”

Published Thu, 20 Feb 2025 11:48:26 GMT

Nikola Jokic had already decoded Miami’s vaunted zone defense for a Game 1 triple-double, but there was still another basketball lesson to digest.Most of Denver’s locker room had cleared out after the Nuggets’ 104-93 win when an assistant coach grabbed a blue dry-erase board marker and headed to Jack White’s locker – the stall stationed directly to Jokic’s right.There, in the back of White’s locker and before Jokic was fully dressed, the assistant diagrammed a half-court set. He depicted how Miami had tried to stymie Jokic, generally with Bam Adebayo, while illustrating all the various actions available to him.It was, effectively, Jokic beginning his preparations for Game 2, a counter adjustment to the Heat’s impending counter.“Yeah, we’re definitely going to have to go to school on it,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “They are in a pretty good rhythm, especially in that first half.”Jokic finished Game 1 with a 27-point, 14-assist, 10-rebound tri...